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HomeMy WebLinkAboutJoint Study Session with Investment Advisory Board - Report /p.ab C'� p.z m COO J�0ENIT ST UD Y S'E S'S3E0 N� o ff , IA r�/C'ITY C'O UN�C'I�L M-4n0 l__ QZ3i� 0 0_4 0-i0� � : 1 m S �C) m <0 O m 0 4 m; x > m Investment Advi'sory,Board'Members:; Bob Tari'behii,:Chair; Bill''Bermcard;,Jon Ely;,Rick Ganwlih,,Bbb)G ass„ (� Warren Half„Bob Win,ncbelil Ide 0I Study Session Topics Broker' Update Cash Row Update GASB3 31 Update Anlnuall [AB report t Aide,2? �j, "p� k�'ma ' ' How does a local government control investment risks? • Create a written investment policy that � defines the local government' s risk level. • Establish an investment committee to review investment activities. • Keep the governing body involved with � regular investment activity reports. How does a City Treasurer protect the City' s Funds? • Principal Risk- Invest only in the highest quality of debt issuers. • Liquidity Risk- 1) Always have a portion of the portfolio in a readily available fund. 2) Match investments with known liabilities. 3) Monitor market conditions; unrealized profits = greater liquidity. • Yield Risk- Diversify investments as to maturity. Normally, the longer the maturity the higher the yield. • Diversification also reduces Principal Risk and Liquidity Risk. The Municipal Treasurers ' Golden Rule: "Who Ever Has The Gold Makes The Rules" • Have an comprehensive 3 - Investment Policy. - • Maintain a "Low Risk" r Philosophy Emphasize Safety of Principal and Liquidity over Yield • Diversify, Diversify, Diversify.... CREDIT RATINGS DEFINITION AND FOOTNOTES generic rating classification from "Aa" through "B" in its corporate bond - rating system. The modifier 1 indicates that the security ranks in the Moody's Investors Service, ratings, as described by the company are: higher end of its generic rating category; the modifier 2 indicates a - mid-range ranking; and the modifier 3 indicates that the issue ranks in SHORT-TERM the lower end of its generic rating category. Prime 1 (P-1): Have a superior ability for repayment of senior debt Standard&Poor's Corporation ratings,as described by the company are: obligations which have an original maturity not exceeding one year. Prime 2 (P-2): Have a strong ability for repayment of senior debt SHORT-TERM obligations which have an original maturity not exceeding one year. A-1: This designation indicates that the degree.of safety regarding Prime 3 (P-3): Have an acceptable ability for repayment of senior timely payment is either overwhelming or very strong. Those issues debt obligations which have an original maturity not exceeding one determined to possess overwhelming safety characteristics will be year. denoted with a plus (+) sign designation. A-2: Capacity for timely payment on the issues with this designation LONG-TERM is strong. However, the relative degree of safety is not as high as for Aaa: Bonds which are rated Aaa are judged to be of the best issues designated "A-1". quality. They carry the smallest degree of investment risk and are A-3: Issues carrying this designation have a satisfactory capacity generally referred to as "gilt edge." Interest payments are protected by a large or by an exceptionally stable margin and principal is secure. for timely payment. They are, however, somewhat more vulnerable to While various protective elements are likely to change, such changes as the adverse effects in circumstances than obligations carrying llie can be visualized are most unlikely to impair the fundamentally strong higher designations. position of such issues. LONG-TERM Aa: Bonds which are rated Aa are judged to be of high quality by AAA: Debt rated "AAA" has the highest rating assigned by all standards. Together with the Aaa group they comprise what are Standard & Poor's. Capacity to pay interest and repay principal is generally known as high-grade bonds. They are rated lower than the extremely strong. best bonds because margins of protection may not be as large as in AA: Debt rated "AA" has a very strong capacity to pay interest and Aaa securities of fluctuation of protective elements may be of greater amplitude or there may be other elements present which may make the repay principal and differs from the highest rated issues only in a small long-term risk appear somewhat larger than in Aaa securities. degree. A: Bonds which are rated A possess many favorable investment A: Debt rated "A" has a strong capacity to pay interest and repay attributes and are to be considered as upper-medium-grade obligations. principal, although it is somewhat more susceptible to the adverse Factors giving security to principal and interest are considered effects of changes in circumstances and economic conditions than debt adequate, but elements may be present which suggest a susceptibility in higher rated categories. to impairment some time in the future. BBB: Debt rated "BBB" is regarded as having adequate capacity to Baa: Bonds which are rated Baa are considered as medium-grade pay interest and repay principal. Whereas it normally exhibits adequate obligations (i.e., they are neither highly protected nor poorly secured). protection parameters, adverse economic conditions or changing Interest payments and principal security appear adequate for the circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity to pay present but certain protective elements may be lacking or may be interest and repay principal for debt in this category than in higher rated characteristically unreliable over any great length of time. Such bonds categories. lack outstanding investment characteristics and in fact have speculative NOTE: Plus + or Minus - : The ratings from "AA" to "CCC" may characteristics as well. ( ) ( ) 9 y be modified by the addition of a plus or minus sign to show relative NOTE: Moody's applies numerical modifiers, 1, 2; and 3 in each standing within the major rating categories. SALOMON SMTrul BLARNEY ' t - • wiUlam C. Blackwl � Senior Vice President-Investment!; Institutional Fixed Income Group 660 Newport Center Drive.Suite 1100 Newport Beach.CA 92660-6412 949-717-5442/800-258-6663 US 949-717-5449 Fax FIECEIVEO FA Last Update: April 23, 1999 AND MADE A PART OF TA RECO�.AST TyH COUNCIL MEETING OF - SALOMON SMITH BARNEY FORECAST SUMMARY OFFICE O THE CITY CLERK CONNIF BRQEKWAY.CITY CLERK GDP: Extremely strong domestic demand continues to overcome the persistent drag from the trade sector. We have again raised our 1999 growth estimate to 3.5%. The slide in global economic activity probably has bottomed. For 2000,we estimate GDP growth of nearly 3%. This is not inflationary if the recent improvement in labor productivity continues. i Consumer: Real income growth remains healthy and credit is available - this aids spending on durable goods, which we expect to post another double-digit increase this year. And the stock market continues to push higher, so spending on discretionary services should remain robust. Housing: Although the fundamental backdrop remains very favorable, upside potential seems limited by the already-high level of activity. In 1998, housing starts exceeded 1.6 million units for the first time since 1987. Autos: Light vehicle sales in 1998 pushed up to 15.6 million units from 15.0 in 1997. We expect a modest increase in 1999 to 15.9. i Capital Spending: Real equipment investment has been increasing at a double-digit pace in recent years, as companies reached for productivity enhancements in the face of tight labor markets and weak pricing power. With these factors intact, only a modest slowing in 1999 is likely in spite of the ongoing squeeze on corporate profits and the falloff in Y2K-related spending. j Trade: A widening trade deficit will continue to be the largest drag on growth, as softening exports to Latin America and Europe offset the stabilization of the Asian region. This source of drag is likely to lessen considerably in 2000. j i Inflation: Intense competitive pressures on tradable goods prices should continue to dampen inflationary pressures. The spike in oil prices is likely to close the gap between overall and core inflation, with both at about 2% this year — a small pickup in 2000 seems likely. Long-term inflation expectations have steadily declined, but may level out for now. Federal Budget: We are forecasting budget surpluses of $109 billion and $125 billion for fiscal years 1999 and 2000, respectively. The paydown of Treasury debt is leaving room for strong private-sector debt issuance. State surpluses have been high, and many have cut taxes. Earnings: The macro environment for earnings remains difficult: nominal GDP growth seems likely to slow a bit further this year, pricing power is weak, and unit labor costs are likely to continue to creep higher. Only a small increase in S&P 500 operating EPS seems likely in 1999. Short-term Rates: There's still not much evidence that inflation is about to accelerate in spite of the fact that economic growth continues to surprise on the high side. The financial markets probably will provide enough restraint to keep the Fed on the sidelines this year. Long-term Rates: Growing global demand for capital is likely to inspire a modest rise in long-term rates. At the same time, continued low inflation and the likely vulnerability of the equity market probably will preclude a substantial backup in U.S. rates. I Dollar; Relative to the Euro, the dollar is likely to have limited downside risk for the next few months. Relative to the yen, the dollar is likely to appreciate toward the Y135/$ level over the next six months, as the Bank of Japan continues to supply liquidity to resuscitate the economy. Whither developing Asian currencies? I 3/o,/O ANDAND M EApE.A,�.�,A�. �� '�10GRDATTHE couNcll M.��TJ � ca'i i $CITY CLERK IAB/CITY COUNCIL JOINT-::_.� _ STUDY SESSION 3s s 3 Shari L. Freidenrich, CPA January 5, 1998 Slide 1 r IAB/City Council Joint Study Session Objectives • Elected Officials Video *' Public Funds Investing • Marking Investments to Market Slide 2 c . i IAB/City Council Joint Study Session Marking Investments to Market • GAS B 31 • Effective Fiscal Year 1998 • Arising from OC Bankruptcy • Definition Slide 3 IAB/City Council Joint Study Session Marking Investments to Market • Impact on Huntington Beach • $83,000 at 10/1/97 • Reporting in Annual Report Slide 4 IAB/City Council Joint Study Session Summary - Objectives • Elected Officials Video • Public Funds Investing • Marking Investments to Market Slide 5 IAB/CITY. COUNCIL JOINT STUDY SESSION Shari L. Freidenrich, CPA January 5, 1998 Slide 11 Investing Public Funds An Overview RECEIVED FROM AND MADE A PART OF T E RECORD AT THE • COUNCIL MEETING OF /-S'Sk OFFICE OF THE CITY CLERK CONNIE BROCKWAY,CITY CLERK S �)Lj/� " R' E N 'E: VIE Presented by Michael Swan and Howard Herring January 5,1998 S E C U R I T I E S • Investing Public Funds • Local governments are formed to provide • services to residents. • Local governments collect fees and taxes and issue debt to pay for services. • The local government is the custodian of the funds until they are spent for the purpose for � which they were collected. "For Profit" vs "Not for Profit" • Corporations, banks and insurance companies must make profits � to satisfy owners (stockholders). • A city must provide services to satisfy residents (voters). • Stockholders accept risks to get higher results. • Residents expect the services they paid for without their money being exposed to excessive risk. • THE GREATER THE RISK THE GREATER THE REWARD • • THE GREATER THE RISK THE GREATER THE CHANCE FOR LOSS WHAT IS RISK? • Principal Risk is the inability of a borrower • to pay for its debts when they come due. . • Liquidity Risk is the inability of an investor to raise cash quickly without losing principal for an unexpected expenditure. • Yield Risk is the investor fails to get a fair � return on its investment, given its stance on Principal Risk and Liquidity Risk,.